- “Our baseline forecast is that ongoing public dissatisfaction with the slow pace of improvements in governance—such as infrastructure development, job creation and easing of corruption—will trigger anti-incumbency factors and push the electorate to seek a change. The NDC, therefore, stands a reasonable chance of winning the 2024 elections,” the EIU said.
A private legal practitioner, Nii Kpakpo Samoa Addo, has said that the Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) report predicting election win for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in 2024 unless it changes the 2020 flagbearer, John Mahama, is inconsistent.
The EIU’s five-year forecast for Ghana released on 13 April 2022 stated that, “the former president, John Mahama, is reportedly considering running again, but we expect the opposition NDC to try to revitalise its prospects with a fresh candidate.”
“Our baseline forecast is that ongoing public dissatisfaction with the slow pace of improvements in governance—such as infrastructure development, job creation and easing of corruption—will trigger anti-incumbency factors and push the electorate to seek a change. The NDC, therefore, stands a reasonable chance of winning the 2024 elections,” the EIU said.
Inconsistent report
However, speaking to Beatrice Adu on The Big Bulletin on Tuesday (19 April), Addo said that the EIU’s analysis indicating that the NDC will win the polls shows that it does not matter the presidential candidate that leads the party.
“It [EIU] says that it expects the NDC to win and it also expects that the NDC will change its candidate now, that’s a contradiction in its own analysis. Because if you expect a party to win, it has nothing to do with who they present as a presidential candidate.
“Clearly, you have [EIU] predicted an outcome that it is clear the NDC is going to take the majority of seats; even if it’s a narrow majority and you expect the party to also win the presidency. So, must it really matter who the party presents as a candidate? So, I find it strange that anybody will come to a conclusion that the face on the ballot is important,” Addo said.
Listen to Addo in the attached audio below:
Nicholas Brown
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