The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted that the National Democratic Congress (NDC) stands a reasonable chance of winning the 2024 elections.
The EIU, however, expects the opposition NDC to try to revitalise its prospects with a fresh candidate aside from the former president, John Dramani Mahama who is reportedly considering running again in 2024.
The EIU’s five-year forecast for Ghana released on 13 April 2022 stated that “The former president, John Mahama, is reportedly considering running again, but we expect the opposition NDC to try to revitalise its prospects with a fresh candidate.”
“Our baseline forecast is that ongoing public dissatisfaction with the slow pace of improvements in governance—such as infrastructure development, job creation and easing of corruption—will trigger anti-incumbency factors and push the electorate to seek a change. The NDC, therefore, stands a reasonable chance of winning the 2024 elections,” the EIU said.
The Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU) also expects Ghana’s underlying political stability to endure over the forecast period, despite a highly acrimonious party-political landscape.
The fierce rivalry between the two major parties—the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC)—will remain the core feature of the political scene.
The EIU said it expects a transfer of power to the NDC in the 2024 elections, driven by anti-incumbency factors and public dissatisfaction with the current government.
“However, irrespective of who retains power, we expect policy continuity in the medium term, with a focus on improving food security, industrialisation and economic diversification. The new government will face similar challenges to its predecessor, but overall political stability will prevail.”
Security situation
The EIU also stated that the security situation remains stable, but potential hotspots exist. “Outbreaks of violence are possible in Western Togoland, where secessionist groups have been pushing for independence since late 2020.”
“However, incidents are isolated and unrest is not expected to spread into neighbouring regions. Security in the Sahel region has deteriorated and the reach of Islamist militant groups is spreading southwards across porous borders to coastal African states,” the EIU said.
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