Dr Bawumia most preferred presidential candidate for election 2024 – New survey reveals   

The Vice President and presidential candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) for the upcoming general elections in December, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia has emerged as the preferred presidential candidate the Ghanaian electorate will choose as president in a new survey conducted by renowned statistician and data management consultant, Professor Smart Sarpong.

The facts as presented by Professor Smart Sarpong in his survey indicate that a total sample size of 59,547 voters were engaged in the study. The voters were selected from all 275 constituencies in the country with sub-samples that make up the population as per the 2020 voters register. The data collection for what the researcher says is a baseline study lasted for 30 days commencing on 1 and ending 30 April 2024.

Researcher questions

The researcher first inquired from respondents which political party they were likely to support in the 2024 presidential elections. 23,080 respondents representing 38.8% settled on the NDC. 20,564, representing 34.5 chose the NPP. A total of 13,735 respondents, 23.1% said they were undecided.

On the subject of which presidential candidate respondents were likely to support in the 2024 presidential elections, 23,432 respondents representing 38.9% indicated that they would choose Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, the NPP presidential candidate as the next president of Ghana while 21,237, representing 36.1% settled on Mr John Mahama. 12,763 respondents, 21.4% said they were undecided.

Survey findings

“Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (NPP) leads as the preferred Presidential Candidate with 38.9%, closely followed by John Dramani Mahama (NDC) with 36.1%. Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (NPP) leads in Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, Western, and Western North. All other Presidential aspirants put together are making up to 3.6% gains,” Professor Smart Sarpong pointed out in his findings.

“About 21.4 % of prospective voters are yet to decide which Presidential candidate to vote for as of the end of April 2024. They may remain floating until they decide to vote in favour of one of the presidential candidates. Most decided region in favour of Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (NPP) is North East with 60% of voters going for him while 75.7 % of voters in the Volta region have decided on John Dramani Mahama (NDC)” the finding further pointed out.

Implications of the survey

Touching on the implications of the findings of the survey to competing political parties, Professor Smart Sarpong noted that “the NDC as a political party is more popular (38.8%) across the country than her presidential candidate Mr John Dramani Mahama (36.1%). Dr Mahamudu Bawumia the presidential candidate of the NPP is more preferred (38.9%) than the party NPP (34.5%) across the country.

“The NDC leads in eight regions namely, Bono East, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, and Volta. The NPP on the other hand leads in seven regions namely, Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, and Western. Other political parties and their candidates are not showing any good signs of impact in the coming elections,” Professor Smart Sarpong’s survey findings read.

“Competence, track record, and party affiliation are the key deciding factors for candidates who may win the 2024 elections. These three factors alone constitute 91.9% of deciding factors. Unemployment and improvement in the economy are the leading critical issues manifestos must seek to address head-on. Poor roads, water, and power crises, illegal mining, LGBTQ rights, corruption, and poor sanitation, among others, also feature as the most critical concerns needing attention among Ghanaian voters” the survey findings further read.

Reporting by Wilberforce Asare in Accra