Political researcher Evans Duah has defended the credibility of his survey projecting a commanding lead for Kennedy Agyapong in the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential primary, insisting the findings reflect delegate sentiments rather than a prediction of the final outcome.
Duah spoke on The Big Bulletin on Asaase Radio with Fritz Delanyo Amegashie, where he explained that his research was conducted as a longitudinal study, spanning several months and multiple data collection phases.
He said the research began with a baseline survey in August, followed by two additional cycles between September and January, allowing his team to track changes in delegate preferences over time.
“This was not a one-off study. It helps us see the evolution of where we started from and where we are getting to,” he said.
According to Dr. Duah, the survey covered over 31,000 validated delegate interviews out of an estimated 40,000-plus delegates nationwide, with a margin of error of 3.5 percent at an 85 percent confidence level.
He stressed that the research does not seek to declare winners but rather to amplify the voices of party delegates.
“What we are doing is bringing the realities on the ground to the people of the New Patriotic Party,” he said.
Duah explained that six regions — including Greater Accra and Ashanti — account for nearly 70 percent of the delegate population, making performance in those regions critical to determining outcomes.
He also observed that voting patterns in the five northern regions have become less consolidated over time, creating openings for multiple candidates as campaigns intensified.
One key finding of the survey, he said, is that approximately 96.6 percent of delegates have already decided who they will vote for, suggesting that any remaining changes are likely to affect margins rather than rankings.
Duah attributed the tight contest to shifting political dynamics and growing emphasis on electability among delegates.
“The question on the minds of delegates is simple: who can win power for the party?” he said, adding that voter fatigue and changing political contexts have altered perceptions of some long-standing contenders.
Despite the confidence he expressed in his data, Dr. Duah maintained that the survey remains an analytical tool, not a prophecy.
“There is no surprise here, based on the work we have done,” he said, while acknowledging that the final verdict rests with delegates when voting takes place.
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