Ghana’s inflation rate to hit 8.8% by 2028, says IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected in its Fiscal Monitor report that Ghana’s inflation will decline to 8.8% by 2028.

The Fund is projecting that inflation will end the year 2023 at 45.4% which is expected to dip further in 2024 to 22.2%.

The IMF’s current inflation projection for 2023 is higher than the country’s current inflation rate of 45%.

Also in the report, the Fund projected that Ghana’s Fiscal deficit will reduce to 7.3% by the end of 2023 and is expected to shoot up to 8.4% in 2024 and reduce again to 7.3% in 2025.

It will decline sharply to 5.9% in 2026, 5.3% in 2027 and end 2028 at 5.4%.

The current projection of 7.3% is lower than the Fund’s earlier projection of 8.6%. It is also lower than the government’s projection in the 2023 Budget Statement which was pegged at 9.9%.

GDP growth is projected at 1.6% by the end of 2023. That is a dip from the 3.2% recorded in 2022. This is also lower than the government’s projection of 2.4%.

The growth rate is, however, expected to pick up to 2.9% in 2024 and grow sharply by 5% in 2028.

Debt

On debt, the IMF is projecting that Ghana’s Debt to GDP Ratio will increase further to 98.7% by the end of 2023. The Debt-to-GDP Ratio is however expected to reduce marginally to reach 92.8% in 2024.

Speaking on Ghana’s projections at the launch of the report at the ongoing IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings, Paulo Medas division chief at the fiscal affairs department of the IMF said for Ghana to attain macro stability and price stability there has to be a consistent macroeconomic framework, basically monetary and fiscal policies working together.

“The problem is once you lose the inflation expectations then it’s going to be much more difficult because you are going to have both bites for longer so the cost is larger to bring back price stability,” he said.

Meanwhile, the rate of inflation for March 2023 declined to 45.0%, the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) has announced. The rate of inflation for February 2023 was 52.8%.

This is a 7.8 percentage points drop relative to the rate that was recorded in February 2023.

It is the third consecutive decline in the national inflation rate after a marginal drop in February’s rate.

Reporting by Nana Oye Ankrah in Washington DC

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