A special delegates-based survey conducted by Outcomes International Ghana and the Centre for Sustainable African Development Initiatives (C-SADI) UK has projected the vice-president, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, to win the 26 August special delegates’ congress of the governing New Patriotic Party with a 72.6% share of the vote.
Bawumia is followed by Alan Kyerematen with 7.7%, Kennedy Agyapong third with 4.3%, Kwabena Agyepong fourth on 1.8% and Owusu Afriyie Akoto fifth with 0.6%.
The sum total of votes for the remaining five candidates is 1.3% but the proportion of undecided voters a substantial 11.7%.
With the turn of campaigns of the various candidates in the NPP special delegates’ election, Outcomes International Ghana and Centre for Sustainable African Development Initiatives (C-SADI) UK jointly conducted a survey to determine which five candidates are likely to qualify for the 4 November 2023, NPP presidential primaries.
The study also looked into other socio-demographic factors which are likely to influence the outcome of the 26 August election – for example, how ethnicity/geography and religion affect the chances of viable candidates, as well as the basis on which delegates assess the suitability of a candidate.
The survey was carried out in all 16 regions of the country using an estimated 300 NPP special delegates as the target population of the 961 voters in the electoral college.
Break it down
The study used multistage probability proportional to size sampling (PPS) with implicit stratification to reduce the operational cost of the survey and better represent the country.
The data was obtained mainly through computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) technology.
A regional breakdown of the sample size shows that 11 special voters in the Upper West Region were interviewed, in the Upper East 17, in the North East 15 and in the Northern Region 19. Seventeen people were interviewed in the Savannah Region, 19 in Bono East, 14 in Bono, 11 in Ahafo, 36 in the Ashanti Region and 29 in the Eastern Region.
In the Greater Accra Region 29 people were interviewed, in the Central and Western Regions 19 each answered questions, in Western North 15, in Oti 11 and in the Volta Region 19.
The breakdown of categories of respondents interviewed was: constituency chairpersons 143, regional executive members 103, Members of Parliament 33, Council of Elders nine, members of National Council eight, card-bearing ministers three and past national officers one.
Below is a copy of the survey:
Bawumia Wins by 72%, A Survey of NPP’s Special Delegates by Fred Dzakpata on Scribd
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