Nigeria’s sovereign dollar-denominated bonds rose sharply on Monday, as overseas investors welcomed the suspension late last week of central bank governor Godwin Emefiele, who oversaw multiple exchange rates that sought to keep the naira strong.
The price of the West African oil producer’s Eurobonds rose as much as 2.6 cents in the dollar before moderating slightly, with many issues reaching the highest prices since late January.
Longer-dated maturities saw the biggest gains, with the 2051 maturity up 2.327 cents to 72.526 cents in the dollar at 0829 GMT, according to Tradeweb data.
Nigeria is facing severe dollar shortages, forcing many to seek out foreign currency on the black market where the naira trades much weaker.
The country’s new President Bola Tinubu had criticised Emefiele’s handling of the naira and monetary policy at his inauguration two weeks ago. The suspended governor is now in custody for investigative reasons, the police’s Department of State Services (DSS) said on Saturday.
“We believe the changes signal a new era of focused, predictable monetary policy and a shift towards non-interventionism in the foreign-exchange regime,” Barclays economist Michael Kafe said in a note to clients on Monday.
A single devaluation of 25-30% of the naira “can no longer be ruled out,” he said, adding that it was not his base case.
“The haste with which the newly appointed president has begun to tackle the country’s economic challenges (e.g. the immediate removal of the fuel subsidy…) suggests that he is keen to pursue all the difficult reforms at the early stages of his term.”
Emefiele’s suspension had been expected after strong criticisms from Tinubu’s camp before Nigeria’s February presidential election, including allegations that the governor was trying to sabotage their campaign when a swap of old naira bank notes caused cash shortages that angered the public.
Folashodun Shonubi, the deputy central bank governor in charge of operations, is now acting governor.
Nigeria’s financial markets were closed when Emefiele’s suspension was announced on Friday. Markets will open on Tuesday after a public holiday on Monday.
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