Senior journalist and political analyst Gabriel Baglo says the confusion surrounding the reported coup attempt in Guinea-Bissau bears the hallmarks of a staged operation rather than an organic military takeover.
Speaking on the Asaase Breakfast Show on Monday (1 December), the media trainer said one of the earliest red flags was how quickly President Umaro Sissoco Embaló—who was supposedly under arrest—managed to call journalists and major media outlets to announce his own detention.
“Some of our colleagues covering the election could not understand how the president, supposedly arrested, was able to call media houses. That was something fishy,” he said.
What a staged coup looks like
Baglo said genuine coups typically follow a predictable media pattern, where the military seizes national broadcasters and issues formal announcements.
“Usually the military will go to national TV or radio, stand with their guns, and one officer reads the document declaring they have taken power and suspended the constitution. That is the normal trend,” he explained.
The absence of this sequence in Guinea-Bissau, he said, added to questions surrounding the credibility of the episode.
Journalists must know the rules to navigate political manipulation
Baglo urged journalists covering volatile political environments to ground themselves in electoral laws, constitutional provisions and regulations that govern voting processes.
“When you know the rules, you can clearly tell when a stakeholder goes beyond what is allowed,” he said.
“That is the only way to navigate confusing narratives, especially when state institutions are shaping storylines.”
Goodluck Jonathan’s criticism is not ordinary
He noted that former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan’s unusual public denouncement—describing the event as a ceremonial coup—should be taken seriously.
“Jonathan is experienced. He has handled crises in Bissau before. As an observer, he would never say such things publicly unless the situation was unusual,” Baglo said.
He added that Senegal’s Prime Minister had also dismissed the coup as a sham, prompting the former Bissau leader who was sheltering in Senegal to flee to Congo.
Why global media interest is low
According to Baglo, Guinea-Bissau’s small population, low geopolitical value and its Portuguese-language media environment all contribute to weak international coverage.
“It is a small, poor country of about two million people. The major global outlets do not invest in covering it like they would for Ghana or Nigeria,” he explained.
“Also, because it’s a Lusophone country, people must translate everything before understanding what happened.”
He noted that the only reason the story gained global attention was Jonathan’s bold public criticism.
Baglo linked Guinea-Bissau’s political confusion to a broader pattern of democratic regression across the continent.
“Many African leaders do not want to respect the rule of law. That is the main challenge,” he concluded.
“Until we respect the rule of law, we will continue facing these crises.”
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