Research released today (Thursday 21 November 2024) by Professor Smart Sarpong, associate professor of statistics at Kumasi Technical University, shows that the Ghanaian vice-president and presidential candidate of the New Patriotic Party, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, is leading with 49.1% of popular support in the 2024 general election.
Dr Bawumia’s closest rival, John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), has 45.8% of the vote in the survey, while Nana Kwame Bediako of the New Force is likely to secure a little over 2%. Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen of the Movement for Change (formerly a leading member of the NPP) is predicted to place fourth, securing just 1.2% of the vote.
The comprehensive survey, conducted across 4,272 communities in all 276 constituencies and involving 99,355 respondents, highlights a clear edge in favour of Bawumia in the critical regions of Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East and Western.
The poll suggests that while Mahama retains substantial backing in the other nine regions, his support is not sufficient to close the gap between himself and Bawumia. In addition to predicting a strong presidential outcome for Dr Bawumia, the poll forecasts a parliamentary majority for the NPP.
Professor Sarpong’s data shows that the NPP could secure at least 148 seats in Parliament, with 128 of these considered “safe”. It projects that the NDC will hold on to 92 safe seats, while 56 constituencies remain highly competitive.
These 56 battleground seats are expected to be split evenly between the two major parties, cementing the NPP’s parliamentary majority.
Professor Sarpong, whose accurate predictions in the 2020 general election earned him national recognition, believes that Bawumia’s leadership and the NPP’s political strategies have resonated strongly with voters.
His analysis suggests that the party is poised for both a decisive presidential victory and significant gains in Parliament.
With 16 days to election day, the poll underscores growing voter confidence in the NPP, setting the stage for a potentially transformative election outcome.
Presidential election
In his analysis of the survey’s findings as far as the presidential election is concerned, Professor Sarpong says that, as of 16 November 2024 (four weeks to the general election), Dr Mahamudu Bawumia of the NPP was in the lead with 49.1%, John Mahama of the NDC coming next with 45.8%, followed by Nana Kwame Bediako on 2.2% and Alan Kyerematen on 1.2%.
“All other candidates put together obtained 1.7% of the votes,” the report says. “It is clear from this … that elections in 2024 can be won in the first round by only one of the two leading political parties, with the NPP having a higher chance of clinching a first-round victory.
“Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East and Western Regions are the leading regions powering the NPP’s 49.1% lead. Bono East, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Volta and Western North Regions are the leading regions powering the NDC’s 45.8%,” Sarpong says.
“In the next two weeks to 7 December, political parties should guard against reverse invasion by working hard to consolidate all gains made in leading regions while seeking to improve in other regions.
“If all sleeping party agents and supporters should arise and get involved, there can be a one-touch victory and spare the nation the stress of organising a second round of elections,” Professor Sarpong further says.
Parliamentary race
Professor Sarpong’s research work notes that as of 16 November (with four weeks to go to the election), “NPP leads in parliamentary safe seats with 128 safe seats, followed by the NDC with 92 safe seats. The remaining 56 constituencies are up for takes, with NPP and NDC likely to win equal share.
“It is clear from this report that by the close of elections [in] 2024, NPP shall secure NOT LESS THAN 148 SEATS in Parliament. There were six competitive independent candidates in Sunyani East, Asante Akyem Central, Asante Akyem North, La-Dadekotopong, Suhum and Agona West. None of the six competitive independent candidates secured enough votes to earn them the pass mark.
“All 276 constituency seats are winnable, but more energy is required in the 56 tight constituencies for parties [that] wish to win. A list of the 56 and their likely winning party will be shared upon request only via my email,” Professor Sarpong says.
Click on the link below to read the full report:
Survey conducted by Professor Smart Sarpong on the 2024 general election
Reporting by Wilberforce Asare in Accra, Ghana
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